Showing posts with label minimum wage. Show all posts
Showing posts with label minimum wage. Show all posts

Friday, April 11, 2014

Does Robert Reich need a refresher course in economics?


Could it be that Robert Reich [see Reich's bonafides below]* needs a refresher in economics? In his blog he tells us that the issue of a higher minimum wage is settled [much as global climate change is settled science]. 

One of his statements is that: “A $15/hour minimum is unlikely to result in higher prices because most businesses directly affected by it are in intense competition for consumers, and will take the raise out of profits rather than raise their prices.”

Let me see, if you are a business in a highly, “INTENSE”, competitive market then all you have to do is lower your profit margin and you can pay your minimum wage workers more.

The problem with this approach is that a business in a highly, intense, competitive market has already cut its profit margin as low as it can. Any of you folk that are running a business please tell me if I am wrong.

I learned in economics 101 that a highly intense, competitive market will, by its very nature, eliminate excess profits and in this type of market there are only a few things that the owners can do to stay in business. The businessman can: hire fewer minimum wage workers, reduce the number of minimum wage workers, reduce the non-pay benefits, charge more for the product/service that these minimum wage workers provide, or [and as the most likely case] a combination of the above actions.

These are what are called “unintended consequences” of government action.

Jerry

* ROBERT B. REICH, Chancellor’s Professor of Public Policy at the University of California at Berkeley and Senior Fellow at the Blum Center for Developing Economies, was Secretary of Labor in the Clinton administration. Time Magazine named him one of the ten most effective cabinet secretaries of the twentieth century. He has written thirteen books, including the best sellers Aftershock and The Work of Nations. His latest, Beyond Outrage, is now out in paperback. He is also a founding editor of the American Prospect magazine and chairman of Common Cause. And he has a new film, Inequality for All.

Saturday, February 22, 2014

The Congressional Budget Office and Alice in Wonderland


“Begin at the beginning," the King said, very gravely, "and go on till you come to the end: then stop.” Lewis Carroll, Alice in Wonderland.

I first read, or it was read to me by my grandmother, Alice in Wonderland before I was six or seven years old. A few years later my grandmother gave me her 1870's copy of Alice and I still have it on my bookshelf, a bit worse for wear these sixty years later. I was reminded of some of the lines from the book this morning while reading a post by Don Boudreaux (Professor of Economics at George Mason University) about the CBO study of the proposed minimum wage hike on employment.

The CBO considered the role of publications bias on their study and to their mind academic journals “According to some analyses of the minimum-wage literature, an unexpectedly large number of studies report a negative effect on employment with a degree of precision just above conventional thresholds for publication.” Because of this the CBO study assumes that the bias of published data would be stronger toward a negative employment outcome for minimum wage workers.

Now standard economic theory predicts that hiking the minimum wage reduces the number of jobs that low-skilled, first time job seekers have available. This standard supply and demand theory is just that, standard theory, while the CBO assumes that the number of studies about negative impacts show a bias in the publications (which must be "adjusted" for).

Because of this, the CBO study may give undue weight to the no or small effect publications and not enough weight to the standard supply and demand analysis. Don's conclusion is that “the negative effects on employment of minimum-wage legislation are likely even greater than those predicted by the CBO.”

I have said many times that original source data is important but I also have said that source is not everything. One must know how the data is "manipulated" to have a true understanding of the meaning of the data presented.

Jerry