Sunday, May 11, 2014

“An economic forecaster is like a cross-eyed javelin thrower; they don’t win many accuracy contests, but they keep the crowd’s attention.” Anonymous

Forecasters in finance, stocks, the economy, sports and elections fall to this reality. 

The key to getting and keeping a job as a public forecaster (television sports analyst, political pundit or business channel commentator) has little to do with being accurate.  Just make sure you entertain the crowd.

On the other hand, being amusing matters not a whit to your success as a trader or investor.  The market does not reward the trader or sports bettor because he tells a great story.

One only survives and thrives as a trader, investor or sports bettor by being more accurate in one’s forecasts than the general market.  You can sound like an idiot, lack a sense of humor, and frequently use malapropisms.  But all that matters to be successful as a trader is can you get it right more often than market.

Find Lucky and Good: Risks, Decisions and Bets for Investors, Traders and Entrepreneurs at Amazon.

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